Israeli election results show no clear path forward amidst ongoing conflict

Netanyahu’s camp secured 53 seats, five more than the opposition bloc. Arab parties gained a record 19 seats, though they are expected to play a limited role in coalition negotiations.

The election took place against a backdrop of significant domestic and international challenges. Netanyahu’s government implemented judicial reforms in 2022 that sparked widespread protests. He also faces a corruption trial initiated in 2019. Furthermore, the government has been scrutinized for alleged failures preceding the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, which triggered Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip. These actions have led to growing international isolation and regional instability, including a recent joint military operation with the United States on Iran in February.

Approximately 2.38 million Israelis voted for Netanyahu’s coalition, while 2.21 million supported the opposition alliance.

Notably, the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the situation in the West Bank were largely absent from the central issues of the election. Analysts attribute this to a general consensus across both alliances regarding these territories. Instead, the election focused on internal matters such as the power of Israel’s courts, mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox minority, and accountability for the October 2023 attacks.

Israeli sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani explained that many Israelis are aware of the devastation in Gaza, but that knowing and acknowledging the moral and political implications are distinct. He suggested a “powerful mechanism of denial” is at play, not necessarily denying facts, but rather denying their meaning.

Supporters of Netanyahu view his leadership as essential for national security. Israeli analyst Ahron Bregman described Netanyahu’s base as a “tribe” or “cult,” loyal regardless of his shortcomings. Roi Zur, an expert on voter behavior, stated that many voters believe Netanyahu is the only leader capable of navigating the current crisis.

Zur emphasized that Netanyahu successfully cultivated a campaign of fear, portraying himself as the only strong leader to address the situation and lead Israel through the post-October 7 war.

According to Shenhav-Shahrabani, security and the ongoing occupation have become intertwined with Israeli perceptions of citizenship and democracy, making it difficult to address underlying issues even with a change in leadership.