Israeli election results leave coalition formation uncertain

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition secured 53 seats out of the 120 in the Knesset. The opposition alliance, led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, obtained 48 seats. The remaining 19 seats were divided among two Arab-led lists, the Joint List and Ra’am, marking their best-ever electoral performance.

Netanyahu’s camp has alleged irregularities in the Arab vote and suggested foreign interference, claims largely dismissed but under ongoing investigation by the Shin Bet internal security service. Police have already investigated and rejected these claims.

While the Arab-led lists demonstrated significant voter turnout and expressed willingness to potentially support an Eisenkot-led government, their involvement remains a contentious issue within the opposition, a diverse coalition including former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, and figures like Yair Golan and Avigdor Lieberman.

On Tuesday, opposition leaders announced preparations to replace Netanyahu’s coalition with a “national emergency government,” but offered no specific plan for achieving a majority, which would require securing support from either the Arab-led lists or the two ultra-Orthodox parties.

“Essentially, we’re both on track to a government, and nowhere near being able to form one,” stated Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak.

Formal coalition negotiations will begin after Wednesday’s certification. President Isaac Herzog will then consult with all parties to determine who is best positioned to form a government. Herzog, who previously lost to Netanyahu in 2015, faces the unusual task of selecting a potential prime minister while also considering Netanyahu’s request for a pardon in his ongoing corruption trial.

Netanyahu maintains that his Likud party’s victory, securing 27 seats, grants him a mandate to lead, stating, “We aim to form a broad government with our partners and with any other party that wishes to join, provided they do not support terrorism.”

A majority government for Netanyahu would likely require either an alliance with the Arab parties or significant defections from the opposition.

The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10th.

Coordination within the opposition appears limited, and personal animosities further complicate negotiations. According to Barak, “It’s really not clear who’s talking to who.”

Speculation surrounds the possibility of one of the ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism (UTJ), defecting to the opposition and backing Eisenkot. UTJ previously withdrew support from Netanyahu’s coalition due to disagreements over military service exemptions. Political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg noted, “There are rumours that the Ashkenazi [Jews, who make up the bulk of the UTJ membership] are ready to break with Netanyahu and go to Eisenkot.”

Ra’am previously participated in the Bennett-Lapid coalition, marking the first time an Arab party formally joined an Israeli government, and public pressure for a similar arrangement is growing. However, sources within the Joint List indicated they do not anticipate being invited to support the opposition bloc.