Israeli election highlights deep divisions, Arab vote gains significance

The attacks of October 7, 2023, the deadliest day in Israeli history, have become a central reference point, evoking deep-seated fears within the population, reminiscent of the historical trauma of the Holocaust. Despite arguments that these attacks occurred within the context of decades of occupation and potential collective punishment, the immediate aftermath and the subsequent events in Gaza have largely been overshadowed by the question of accountability.

The election effectively became a referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long presented himself as the guarantor of Israel’s security. His leadership has faced scrutiny, with reports suggesting he received advance warnings about the October 7 attacks. Netanyahu’s supporters are divided, with some accepting a degree of responsibility while emphasizing his subsequent actions, while others place blame on military leaders.

The election results reflected this deep divide. While Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing, far-right, and ultra-Orthodox parties fell short of the 61 seats needed for a majority, his Likud party remains the largest in the Knesset. In Sderot, a town heavily impacted by the October 7 attacks, his bloc secured approximately 70% of the vote, a remarkable margin. Conversely, Tel Aviv overwhelmingly favored his opponents.

A significant development emerged from the participation of Arab citizens, comprising roughly 20% of Israel’s population. Historically disengaged from the political process, they turned out in record numbers this time, largely motivated by opposition to figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, known for their hardline policies in the West Bank. The Arab parties secured 19 seats, their highest ever total, potentially holding the key to whether Netanyahu remains in power.

While opposition leaders have largely ruled out forming a government with Arab parties, recent surveys suggest a shift in public opinion, with a majority of opposition voters now favoring a government led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot with the support of Arab parties. This potential shift, though preliminary, could signal a gradual change in Israeli politics. The newly elected Arab members of parliament are now challenging the long-standing promise of equality enshrined in Israel’s Declaration of Independence of 1948. The coming weeks of coalition negotiations will be crucial in determining the future direction of the country.