Ten House races to watch that could shift control in 2026

Despite facing significant headwinds, including President Trump’s declining popularity, the ten Republican incumbents have expressed confidence in their ability to retain their seats. Many have navigated challenging contests previously and are relying on their legislative records to defend the GOP’s narrow 218-214 majority.

Representative Mike Lawler, of New York’s Hudson Valley, secured a crucial victory in 2022, contributing to the Republican takeover of the House. He has consistently presented himself as a bipartisan member willing to challenge the president on key issues such as healthcare, taxes, and immigration. Lawler, 40, has declined to pursue a run for governor, and recent polls show a close race against Democrat Cait Conley, a former Biden administration official and Army combat veteran.

Representative Tom Barrett, of Michigan, is seeking re-election after succeeding Elissa Slotkin, who is now running for Senate. Barrett, an Army helicopter pilot and Iraq War veteran, is favored in most surveys against Democratic challenger William Lawrence, whose controversial statements have drawn scrutiny.

Representative Jen Kiggans, of Virginia, faced a redistricting challenge from Virginia Democrats that was ultimately rejected by the courts. Current surveys indicate a tight race against Democrat Elaine Luria, whom Kiggans defeated in 2022 for Virginia’s Second District.

Ohio Representative Max Miller is facing a particularly difficult re-election campaign following a highly publicized divorce and custody dispute with Emily Moreno, daughter of Senator Bernie Moreno. Miller denies allegations of abuse made by his former spouse, who has also made similar accusations. His challenger, Brian Poindexter, has gained traction in surveys despite the district’s historical Republican leanings.

Representative Monica De La Cruz, of Texas, trails Latin Grammy-winning artist Bobby Pulido in most polls. De La Cruz, who first won election in 2022, faces questions surrounding Pulido’s past association with a registered sex offender. A redistricting effort in Texas last year did not significantly improve her prospects.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has dismissed polling data suggesting Representative Derrick Van Orden, of Wisconsin, is vulnerable. Van Orden is in a rematch against Rebecca Cooke, whom he defeated by over 11,000 votes in 2024.

Representative Scott Perry is locked in a dead heat with Democrat Janelle Stelson in Pennsylvania’s 10th District, marking the most challenging re-election he has faced since entering the House in 2013.

Representative Gabe Evans, of Colorado, is in a statistical tie or dead even race against Democrat Manny Rutinel, according to internal polls. Evans unseated Representative Yadira Caraveo in 2024.

Representative David Valadao, of California, will be the first test of whether a Democratic-led redistricting effort has effectively removed Republican-held seats from contention. He is facing Randy Villegas, backed by Senator Bernie Sanders, in California’s 22nd District.

Representative Juan Ciscomani, of Arizona, is projected to lose to Democrat and Marine veteran JoAnna Mendoza, even according to some Republican-aligned polls. Ciscomani was part of the wave of Republicans who secured the House majority in 2022.