NBC analyst identifies potential Republican advantage ahead of midterms
Despite widespread polling suggesting Democrats are poised to gain control of Congress, NBC News data analyst Steve Kornacki highlighted a potential factor that could offer Republicans a degree of optimism before Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Recent polls indicate a strong possibility of Democrats breaking the Republican Party’s control of Congress and potentially securing majorities in both the House and the Senate. However, Kornacki pointed to a key difference between the current political climate and the 2018 midterm elections.
While President Donald Trump’s approval rating currently sits at a low 40 percent, with 60 percent disapproval, Kornacki noted that his net approval rating was still negative in 2018, though not as severely so. He also observed a significant decline in voter satisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy, which stood at 68 percent in 2018 compared to just 26 percent currently.
“Barely one quarter of voters say they are satisfied with it,” Kornacki stated. “Almost three quarters say they’re dissatisfied. Again, compare this to Trump’s first midterm in 2018. I think this is why his standing in that approval rating is lower now because look at this: in 2018, the economy was his strong suit. Nearly 70 percent of voters on the eve of that midterm were satisfied with it. The total opposite right now.”
Despite the unfavorable data surrounding Trump, Kornacki suggested that Republicans may benefit from the overall perception of the two parties. He noted that while Republicans are not widely popular, their net approval rating remains roughly consistent with 2018.
Conversely, the Democratic Party currently holds only 29 percent favorability, a significant shift from 2018. Kornacki questioned whether this increased baggage for the Democratic Party might hinder their ability to capitalize on other favorable trends.
The elections, occurring one day after a record $11.6 billion has been spent on political advertisements for the 2025–26 election cycle, will also determine the outcomes of gubernatorial races in 36 states and state legislative elections across the nation. AdImpact reports the highest advertising spending is concentrated in competitive US Senate races in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan.
Source
“NBC data guru Steve Kornacki gives Trump a reason to be hopeful about election night”
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