Independent voters and candidates could shape midterm outcomes

Approximately 117 million US adults, nearly half of the electorate, now identify as politically independent, prompting both Democrats and Republicans to aggressively pursue their support.

Despite this growing independence, independent or third-party candidates rarely secure federal or state positions. The Democratic and Republican parties have historically dominated US politics at all levels.

“The whole [electoral] system is built to frustrate the independence of voters,” stated Rick Bennett, a Republican Party chair in Maine and independent candidate for governor.

While millions of voters reject the labels of either major party, fewer choose to vote for independent candidates. Political scientist AJ Simmons notes this contradiction, but also suggests that “2026 is shaping up to be one of the strongest election cycles for independent candidates in recent memory.”

A recent Pew Research Center survey indicates that 44 percent of US adults identify as politically independent, compared to 29 percent Democrat and 28 percent Republican. However, most independents still lean towards one of the two major parties, with only 7-10 percent being truly unaffiliated.

These “true” independents are highly sought after by candidates due to their potential to sway the outcome of elections. Polling data from Marist suggests that 52 percent of likely independent voters currently support Democrats, while 39 percent back Republicans.

Frustration with President Donald Trump is a significant factor, with independent voters more than three times as likely to cite opposition to the president as their primary motivation, and 28 percent expressing a desire for “change.”

While the US electoral system doesn’t legally restrict elections to two parties, the winner-take-all system and single-member districts often disadvantage independent candidates. Voters frequently opt for candidates perceived as more viable, even if they don’t fully align with their views, fearing their vote will be “wasted.”

Political scientist Bernard Tamas argues that the real obstacle for third-party candidates isn’t legal barriers, but a lack of funding. The 2026 midterm elections are projected to see up to $11.6 billion spent on political advertising, dwarfing the resources available to independent candidates. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) raised $252.3 million, while the Republican National Committee (RNC) collected $341 million.

Republican strategist Lesley Shedd suggests that many identifying as independent are still aligned with a major party, but may disagree on certain issues or simply want to distance themselves from the political establishment.

Efforts to support independent candidates, such as the Independent Leadership Council led by former Senator Joe Manchin, have raised over $10 million. However, the ultimate test will be whether these candidates can achieve consistent viability across multiple races.

Currently, one independent holds a seat in the House of Representatives, two in the Senate, and none hold a state governor position. Simmons predicts that several independent congressional hopefuls could impact the midterm results, particularly in Nebraska and Montana. Dan Osborn, an independent Senate candidate in Nebraska, is considered a potential winner in a closely contested race.