Record spending fuels US midterm elections, obscuring donor influence

The current election cycle reveals a reshaping of political funding, with increased influence from the tech industry and a concentration of spending among a few wealthy individuals and corporations. The impact of megadonors like Tesla founder Elon Musk, and the rise of dark money, is difficult to quantify but is clearly affecting the electoral landscape.

Ad industry trackers estimate $11.6 billion will be spent on advertising this cycle, exceeding the $11.2 billion spent in the 2024 presidential election. OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan research group, projects total spending to reach $11.9 billion.

The top 40 donors have contributed over $2.4 billion by mid-October, a sevenfold increase compared to 2014 when adjusted for inflation. Notably, Republican candidates are now receiving significantly more support from these top donors, with a three-to-one advantage over Democrats, a stark contrast to the two-to-one split seen in 2014.

Spending by Super PACs, which can accept unlimited contributions, has surpassed $2 billion, a 51% increase compared to the previous midterm cycle when adjusted for inflation. Additionally, dark money groups—organizations like 501(c)4 non-profits that are not required to disclose their donors—have already spent at least $1 billion by the end of August.

The 2010 Supreme Court ruling in *Citizens United* significantly altered campaign finance regulations by allowing unlimited spending by corporations and unions. However, regulations intended to prevent close coordination between Super PACs and campaigns are frequently disregarded. Donald Trump has publicly acknowledged his control over the Super PAC Maga Inc., a practice that violates campaign finance law.

Despite Republicans outspending Democrats, polls suggest minimal impact from attack ads in competitive races, as Democrats remain poised to potentially gain control of the House and Senate. Michael Bloomberg recently contributed an additional $36 million to Democratic candidates, on top of his previous commitment of $80 million.

Ian Vandewalker of the Brennan Center for Justice warns that the trend of diminishing limits and disclosures is concerning. He points to the emergence of new, wealthy industries like artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, which are donating heavily to both parties, seeking deregulation. Megadonors like Musk are treating political spending as a business investment.

Among the top donors, Elon Musk has given $483 million, double what George Soros, a Democratic supporter, contributed in 2022. Other significant contributors include Jeffrey Yass and the Uihlein family, who support Republican causes, and Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, who focus on deregulation and the crypto industry. Miriam Adelson has contributed $67 million, advocating for pro-Israel policies.

A recent Supreme Court decision loosening restrictions on party coordination has allowed the GOP to inject substantial funds into smaller, crucial races, previously advantageous for Democrats who relied on grassroots fundraising. The influence of traditional finance interests has also declined significantly, from nearly half of the top 40 donors in 2014 to just 15% this year. Labor, previously a significant Democratic supporter, no longer ranks among the top 40 midterm donors.