California early voting surges, exceeding 2022 totals by nearly a million

This represents an increase of approximately 934,000 ballots, a 17.1% jump, even when considering that this year’s snapshot was taken two days before Tuesday’s election. Pollster Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc. estimates an even larger increase, with roughly 1.2 to 1.3 million more ballots returned compared to the same point in 2022.

Mitchell noted that comparisons are complicated due to differing reporting cutoffs between his data and the Secretary of State’s office. Despite a competitive mayoral race in Los Angeles County in 2022, which drew Republican voters, early returns there are currently up by around 70,000 ballots compared to 2022, with a 2 percentage point increase in voter participation.

Statewide, there’s been a notable rise in Latino participation in early voting. At the top of the ballot, Democrat Xavier Becerra is challenging Republican Steve Hilton for the position currently held by termed-out Governor Gavin Newsom. In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass faces a challenge from City Councilmember Nithya Raman, with key issues including homelessness, housing costs, and preparations for the 2028 Olympics.

The Secretary of State’s office reports 6,107,024 mail ballots and 299,137 in-person ballots have been cast. While this surpasses 2022 levels, it remains below the roughly 8.1 million mail ballots reported before the 2024 presidential election.

Geographic variations are evident across California. Los Angeles County has seen nearly 1.4 million ballots cast, representing over a fifth of the statewide total, with a participation rate of 23.45%. San Diego County’s rate is 34.03%, Orange County’s 31.16%, and Riverside County’s 25.45%. Smaller counties like Sierra County (47.99%) and Plumas County (46.88%) have the highest participation rates, while Imperial County has the lowest at 16.61%.

Approximately 95% of the early ballots were submitted via mail, with over 3 million arriving through the postal service and nearly 2.7 million deposited in drop boxes. Counties have accepted 99.07% of returned mail ballots.

Just prior to the election, the Trump administration requested the Supreme Court intervene and invalidate 20,000 mail-in ballots, alleging they were sent to non-citizens. Voters still have the option to cast ballots in person or return mail ballots to official drop-off locations until 8 p.m. Tuesday.