State governor races could shape US political landscape ahead of 2028

An unusually large number of these contests feature open seats, meaning no incumbent governor is seeking re-election. In 19 of these races, current officeholders, such as California Democrat Gavin Newsom and Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds, are either term-limited or have chosen not to run again. This turnover creates opportunities for substantial shifts in state leadership.

State governors wield considerable power, serving as chief executives who oversee government departments and agencies. Their responsibilities include proposing budgets, appointing officials, directing law enforcement, and issuing executive orders. They also have the authority to approve or veto legislation passed by state legislatures.

A particularly crucial area of influence for governors is reproductive rights. Following the 2022 Supreme Court decision eliminating the constitutional right to abortion, states have become central in determining abortion access. While 13 state legislatures have enacted bans or near-total bans, some governors have used executive orders to provide protections for providers and patients, especially in states where legislative support is lacking, like North Carolina.

Governors also play a key role in election administration, either by appointing election officials or by influencing voting rules through legislation. Their actions can significantly impact how elections are conducted within their states.

Beyond state matters, governors shape how states interact with the federal government, challenging policies in court and negotiating funding. They are also responsible for implementing federally funded programs, requiring collaboration with the White House.

Historically, the position of governor has served as a springboard to the presidency. Seventeen former US presidents, including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, previously held state governorships. However, some gubernatorial candidates have seen their presidential aspirations hindered by unpopular state-level policies, as demonstrated by Chris Christie’s 2016 campaign, which was derailed by the “Bridgegate” scandal and criticism of his interactions with former President Barack Obama.

This year’s gubernatorial races are viewed as a preview of the 2028 presidential election. Gavin Newsom, currently the governor of California, is ineligible to run for a third term and is considered a potential frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Other potential contenders, such as Wes Moore of Maryland and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, are also in competitive re-election campaigns.