Economic concerns shape voters’ choices in upcoming elections

The economy is a primary concern for many voters. A recent NBC News Decision Desk Poll revealed that it’s the most important issue for voters, with a majority expressing significant dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s handling of it.

The cost of living has become a significant burden. Initially, wages were outpacing price increases during Trump’s second term. However, the onset of the war with Iran triggered a surge in consumer prices, leading to inflation exceeding wage growth for the past six months. In September, inflation reached 3.7%, while wages only increased by 3% year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Rising energy costs, spurred by the war with Iran, are a major contributor to these price hikes. Gas prices have climbed from an average of $3.12 per gallon at the start of Trump’s second term to over $4, marking the highest prices before an election. Diesel prices have also reached record highs, surging from $3.63 to above $6.

Mortgage rates have also seen a dramatic increase. They peaked at 7% in January 2025 before decreasing during the first year of Trump’s second term. Just before the Iran war, the 30-year fixed rate dipped below 6%, according to Freddie Mac. Currently, the 30-year fixed rate is well above 7%, with the 15-year fixed rate also spiking above 6%.

While historically, mortgage rates above 7% aren’t uncommon, the combination of these rates with a 57% increase in average home prices since January 2020 is pricing many potential buyers out of the market. The average single-family home price reached $422,700 in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. Simultaneously, homeowners hold over $35 trillion in real estate equity as of the second quarter of 2026, a figure that has more than doubled in the last decade.

The stock market has generally performed well during Trump’s second term, with the S&P 500 index rising by over 26%. While there were dips related to “Liberation Day” tariffs in 2025 and the early stages of the Iran war, strong corporate earnings and investments in artificial intelligence have pushed the index to record highs. This growth, however, highlights a widening wealth gap, with Wall Street investors and homeowners benefiting while many Americans struggle with day-to-day expenses.