Ukraine’s space push: A new front in the war against Russia

This attack, alongside others against Russian refineries and industry, marks a significant expansion of the conflict into space. The ability to access and control space-based systems, and to disrupt enemy operations in orbit, has become increasingly vital in a war characterized by drone warfare and battlefield sensors.

The Samara strike specifically targeted the Rassvet satellite system, a Russian replacement for Elon Musk’s Starlink, from which Russia was excluded earlier this year. Other Roscosmos sites, including a complex in Korolyov near Moscow and a radio telescope in Crimea, have also been targeted by Ukraine.

Russia’s rapid deployment of Rassvet is not the only space-related challenge for Ukraine. Moscow has also utilized Oreshnik ballistic missiles, which deploy multiple warheads initially designed for nuclear weapons, in at least three instances.

In response, Ukraine is diversifying its space-based systems beyond reliance on the US and Starlink, and developing countermeasures against threats like the Oreshnik missile system. The nation has conducted multiple near-space interception tests and recently launched the Obria Nano satellite, a test satellite for a future independent Ukrainian communications network envisioning approximately 245 satellites.

Experts observe that the increasing involvement of space in the Ukraine conflict highlights the rapid militarization of a domain with outdated and difficult-to-enforce treaties. The US air force secretary, Troy Meink, recently confirmed the deployment of “on-orbit space control weapons,” following reports of Russian satellites maneuvering close to US and allied assets.

An incident involving a Russian satellite, Kosmos 2612, aggressively approaching a Finnish Iceye satellite providing terrain imaging to the Ukrainian military, exemplifies this escalating tension. According to Dr. Elena Grossfeld, a space and security expert at the Swedish Defence University, “We’re already in that future [of space warfare].”

Grossfeld argues that space has become essential for Russia’s military success, with offensive operations in space seen as a precursor to broader conflict. She noted that in 2021, the US Space Force indicated daily attacks by Russia and China on US satellites.

Another possibility is that Russia’s actions against the Iceye satellite were intended to force it to use fuel, shortening its lifespan. Other tactics employed by Russia include signal jamming, laser-dazzling of satellites, and deploying “inspector” spy satellites near foreign assets.

Victoria Samson, head of the Secure World Foundation, points to the rapid increase in countries operating in space and the expansion of commercial activities by companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin as complicating factors. Musk’s recent actions regarding Starlink have prompted a reassessment of reliance on commercial ventures.

Samson believes the recent events are part of a larger strategic competition, with the US becoming more open about its space capabilities while Russia and China pursue similar advancements. She cited Russia’s jamming of GPS signals disrupting aviation over the Baltics and pauses in the US sharing satellite intelligence with Ukraine as examples of escalating tensions.

Fedir Venislavskyi, head of the state security subcommittee of Ukraine’s parliamentary defense committee, emphasized the importance of a “sovereign” Ukrainian presence in space, now realized through the Obria Nano satellite.