European-led force in Ukraine could return fire, upcoming exercise reveals

Details emerged alongside the announcement of Exercise Koalicja, a multinational rehearsal scheduled for later this month in Poland. The exercise will involve 2,800 soldiers, sailors, and aviators from 11 countries, simulating a rapid deployment of European militaries to Ukraine should the war conclude. France is contributing 1,500 troops from its 1st Division, while Britain is sending 300 from the 7th Light Mechanised Brigade.

While a future deployment remains hypothetical, it serves as a reminder of the potential for British forces to be re-engaged in the conflict, given Russia’s history of low-level attacks during previous ceasefires between 2014 and 2022. Lt Gen Tom Bateman, commander of the force, stated that participating countries are committed to providing “robust and binding security guarantees for Ukraine following a cessation of hostilities.”

The exercise aims to demonstrate military preparedness, rapid deployment capabilities, and operational effectiveness, reflecting plans developed over the past year. Participating nations include Poland, Germany, Belgium, Estonia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and Turkey.

The force is designed to operate outside of NATO, minimizing reliance on US support. Officials confirmed the force will not depend on US systems, specifically addressing concerns about reliance on Starlink for communications.

Recent peace efforts have stalled, and three-way talks brokered by the US are planned for later this month. Both Ukraine and Russia have continued targeting each other’s energy infrastructure, and Ukrainian air-raid alert apps were recently hacked, briefly issuing false warnings about nuclear and chemical threats.

Concerns have arisen regarding the reliability of US support for allies, particularly after recent restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Starshield, a military variant of Starlink, impacted drone operations. A key objective of the multinational force would be to assist in rebuilding and strengthening Ukraine’s military after the conflict, with deployments expected to be away from the front lines. Rules of engagement would permit self-defense against Russian drone attacks, raising questions about potential responses from Moscow.

The UK has previously committed to assisting countries in the Middle East against attacks from Iran and Yemen’s Houthis, including RAF Typhoon sorties over Qatar and support for Saudi Arabia. Plans also include securing Ukraine’s commercial airports with fighter jet patrols and clearing mines in the Black Sea to facilitate grain exports, an operation led by Turkey.