Eisenkot tasked with forming Israeli government amidst deep divisions

Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, acknowledged the challenge ahead, stating on X, “Now is the time to form a national emergency government. I will do everything to ensure we are worthy.”

The 66-year-old faces significant hurdles due to profound disagreements among opposition parties regarding national security, religious matters, and the Israeli presence in Palestinian territories. Neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu currently holds the 61-seat majority required in the 120-member Knesset.

Potential coalition partners for Eisenkot include his own Yashar party (21 seats), the center-left Democrats led by Yair Golan, Naftali Bennett’s center-right Together party, and Avigdor Lieberman’s right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu. This combined bloc controls 48 seats. Support from the Arab-led Ra’am (United List) and the Joint List (comprising Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad), which collectively hold 19 seats, would bring the anti-Netanyahu camp to 67 seats. However, Eisenkot has ruled out including Arab parties in his government, while Lieberman has dismissed the idea of a minority government reliant on their support.

Netanyahu’s coalition has dwindled from 64 seats in 2022 to 53, with his Likud party holding 27 seats. United Torah Judaism, a longtime ultra-Orthodox ally, declined to endorse Netanyahu during consultations with Herzog, though they may reconsider if their demands, particularly regarding military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, are met.

One possibility is a minority government where Eisenkot’s bloc relies on external support from Ra’am and the Joint List to pass legislation without those parties formally joining the coalition. In 2021, Ra’am did join a government led by Bennett, the first independent Arab party to do so, but that administration collapsed after 18 months due to disagreements over settlements and Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu has consistently opposed Palestinian statehood and has promoted settlement expansions, which are considered illegal under international law.

Another path for Eisenkot could involve bringing the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties (13 seats combined) into his coalition, reaching the necessary 61-seat majority. This would necessitate compromises on military conscription exemptions for religious students. A less likely scenario involves a unity government with Yashar, Together, Israel Our Home, and Likud, which would command 67 seats but require Eisenkot to abandon his pledge to remove Netanyahu from power.

If Eisenkot fails, Netanyahu would be given a chance to form a government. If both fail, parliament could nominate another candidate, potentially leading to new elections after 100 days. The outcome of these negotiations will significantly impact key policy areas including the economy, military service, and the future of the occupied Palestinian territory.