UK government poised to ease electric vehicle sales goals

Louise Haigh, acting as deputy prime minister, will finalize the revised plan following a meeting in Downing Street on Wednesday, resolving a disagreement between the transport, energy, and business departments. Sources indicate the target for EV sales is likely to be reduced by roughly a quarter, aiming to support the British automotive industry while potentially sparking debate with parliamentarians and environmental advocates concerning a key decarbonization policy.

This decision arrives as Prime Minister Andy Burnham prepares for his first appearance at the Cop summit, where he and Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband are scheduled to champion electrification on a global scale.

Recent approvals of the Jackdaw gasfield and cuts to green funding for defense spending have already drawn criticism from some MPs. Decisions on the Rosebank oilfield and the ZEV mandate are now considered critical.

Labour MP Lizzi Collinge emphasized the potential impact of the ZEV mandate, stating, “The upcoming decision on the ZEV [zero emission vehicle] mandate will have a huge climate impact, possibly the biggest one that’s on the PM’s desk. But it will also set the direction for tackling the cost of living and helping get our energy prices down over the coming decade.”

Catherine Fookes, MP for Monmouthshire, added, “The government has some incredibly difficult decisions to make in the coming months and the prime minister will need to weigh up the consequences of each. We need the ZEV mandate to stay, and Rosebank to be rejected.”

A government spokesperson defended the process, stating, “The government is united in its commitment to the ZEV mandate and no decisions have been taken. We are committed to the phaseout of all new cars relying solely on petrol and diesel engines by 2030, and to 100% of new car and van sales being zero emission by 2035, and our legally binding net zero targets. Our consultation on the mandate will not change this, and will ensure we are taking a pragmatic and balanced approach to the ZEV transition.”

Existing regulations, established by the previous Conservative government, require carmakers to ensure only electric vehicles are sold by 2035, with a gradual increase in their proportion to 80% by 2030. This policy is projected to contribute significantly to emissions reductions, accounting for approximately 14% of the UK’s pledged reductions between 2028 and 2032.

Car manufacturers have consistently expressed concerns about the feasibility of these interim targets, citing inflation and economic pressures. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reports that the industry is unlikely to meet this year’s 33% target, with electric vehicles representing 26.6% of new car sales in the first ten months of the year.

Exemptions within the regulations allow carmakers to avoid penalties, such as through increased hybrid sales or future EV sales, complicating the assessment of progress. SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes stated, “The gap between demand and mandated targets continues to widen. Meaningful change to the trajectory, alongside expanded flexibilities throughout the regulation, is essential to bridge that gap, safeguard jobs and investment while keeping the UK’s zero emission transition on track.”

Following a review initiated in August, the government presented five options, ranging from maintaining the current targets to reducing them to 50%. This sparked internal debate within Whitehall, with the business secretary advocating for a 50% target, the transport secretary favoring 60%, and others supporting the existing 80% goal. Prime Minister Burnham recused himself from the decision due to his wife’s involvement with the electric vehicle charging network Be.EV.

It is anticipated that Haigh will approve a 2030 target of approximately 60%, alongside extending existing flexibilities until 2034. She has reportedly cautioned colleagues against seeking further target reductions in the future.

This adjustment is expected to draw criticism from Labour MPs, environmental groups, and the EV charging industry, which relies on strong vehicle sales. Shane Brennan, CEO of ChargeUK, warned, “Weakening the mandate puts £1.7bn of charging infrastructure at risk and all the associated jobs and supply chain spending that goes with it.”

Paul McNamee, director of the Labour Climate and Environment Forum, concluded, “Significant weakening of the ZEV mandate from the current 80% targets will be seen as a rowing back on climate leadership.”