Earth’s heat accumulation accelerates, posing risks of extreme weather

The WMO’s State of the Global Climate update revealed that the imbalance between solar energy entering the atmosphere and energy leaving Earth has reached its highest level since monitoring began. This imbalance is expected to intensify extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, and tropical cyclones.

During January to September 2026, the global average surface temperature was approximately 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average. Sea surface temperatures reached record highs, and sea levels were the highest ever recorded. The ocean absorbs 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, marking a tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat.

“We have entered a new age of climate extremes,” stated UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising. And those least responsible are suffering first and worst.”

The conference in Antalya, Turkey, is taking place as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have risen significantly. In 2025, the concentration was 426.8 parts per million (ppm), compared to 356.42 ppm when the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed in 1992. Overall, concentrations have increased 53% since 1750.

The WMO reported that the rate of Earth’s energy imbalance increased from 0.13W per square meter between 1960 and 2025 to 0.3W per square meter between 2001 and 2025. This contributes to the likelihood that 2023 to 2026 will be the four warmest years on record.

The year began with La Niña conditions, which typically moderate global temperatures. However, a strong El Niño, predicted to be the most intense in the past 1,000 years, is expected to push the final average temperature for 2026 above 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average.

Ocean heat content reached a record high in the upper 2,000 meters of the ocean in 2025, a warming trend that is projected to continue for centuries.

At the poles, Antarctic sea ice extent was the third-lowest on record, while the Arctic maximum was the lowest or second lowest. Glaciers lost over 400 gigatonnes of mass, marking the fourth consecutive year of mass loss across all 19 glacierized regions globally.

Professor Bill McGuire of University College London described the report’s findings as unsurprising, emphasizing the alarming trends in global temperature, sea level rise, and sea ice extent. He expressed concern over the growing imbalance between incoming and outgoing energy, highlighting the role of natural feedbacks accelerating the warming process. McGuire predicts that the 1.5°C warming limit will be permanently exceeded in 2028, with a potential breach of 2°C in the late 2030s.