2026 projected to be second-hottest year globally, EU climate data shows

The service estimates a 20% probability that 2026 will match or surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record. Scientists now consider it “virtually certain” that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2026.

The average global temperature from 2023 to 2026 is also anticipated to surpass the 1.5C threshold, a critical limit established within the Paris Agreement aimed at mitigating the most severe consequences of climate change.

October marked a record for warmth globally, with average surface air temperatures registering 1.75C above the 1850-1900 baseline. This follows two consecutive months exceeding the 1.5C threshold.

“October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures,” stated Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). “An exceptionally strong El Nino is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.”

The current El Nino is expected to peak later in the year and has already set a record temperature in a key Pacific zone. This natural climate cycle temporarily elevates sea temperatures, potentially leading to drought, flooding, and intensified global warming.

Experts suggest that the El Nino phenomenon could contribute to 2027 becoming the hottest year on record.

The 2015 Paris Agreement committed nations to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, with efforts to cap it at 1.5C. However, the United Nations recently acknowledged that the 1.5C target will likely be missed within the coming years. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels is crucial to minimize the period of exceeding 1.5C and to rapidly return temperatures to safer levels.