Iran’s power structure under scrutiny amidst US tensions

President Masoud Pezeshkian recently stated that he has been granted specific authority by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to conduct negotiations with the US. This announcement comes as mediators from Qatar and Pakistan attempt to avert potential US military action against Iran, following US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 that resulted in the deaths of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other high-ranking officials.

Since those strikes, the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other security officials has grown significantly. According to Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, any agreement must have the support of Iran’s security and military establishment.

Discussions now encompass not only Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions but also broader security arrangements, including control over the Strait of Hormuz and guarantees against future attacks. Iran has proposed a seven-point plan for the US to adhere to in order to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Decision-making within Iran involves the office of the supreme leader and the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), where military and security figures hold prominent positions. Supreme Leader Khamenei recently instructed military commanders, including IRGC chief commander Ahmad Vahidi, to respond to US threats and expand potential targets.

While the supreme leader ultimately approves major decisions, the SNSC, which includes representatives from the armed forces, government ministers, and parliament and judiciary leaders, votes on them first. Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander-in-chief, currently serves as the SNSC’s secretary, a position that has gained considerable influence.

Notably, US Vice President JD Vance recently addressed a letter to Rezaei, rather than President Pezeshkian or parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who previously served as chief negotiator. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed Rezaei’s role but stated Ghalibaf remains involved.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and his deputies continue to be key figures in diplomatic efforts. Ghalibaf previously oversaw talks that led to a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Washington, which briefly paused the war and lifted a US maritime blockade. However, the MoU collapsed after accusations of US violations, including regarding the Strait of Hormuz, prompting IRGC attacks on vessels.

Following the MoU’s failure, questions arose about the internal power struggles within Iran. IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi defended the attacks on ships as a coordinated response to US actions, accusing Washington of violating treaties and establishing alternative shipping routes.

Current negotiations involve a return to the MoU, alongside additional guarantees for a lasting agreement. Iran seeks an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief, the release of frozen funds, reduced US military presence in the region, and a cessation of hostilities. Tehran also insists on Washington’s recognition of an Iran-Oman deal regarding shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.