Conservative support surges, narrowing gap with Labour

The poll shows 24 percent of voters would currently support the Conservatives, marking a two-percent increase from the previous week and a considerable improvement compared to the 17 to 19 percent range the party has averaged over the past year. Notably, 67 percent of Conservative voters from the 2024 election intend to vote for the party again, and the Conservatives have gained 13 percent of Liberal Democrat supporters from that same election.

The Conservative Party’s appeal appears to be extending to younger demographics. Seventeen percent of voters aged 18 to 24 plan to vote Conservative, surpassing the combined support for the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK.

The survey, conducted by YouGov following last week’s Budget, also shows Labour’s support declining slightly to 26 percent, down one point. This remains significantly higher than the 19 percent level recorded during the summer prior to Andy Burnham’s leadership.

The possibility of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK reaching No. 10 appears to be diminishing, as the party holds third place for the third consecutive week with 21 percent support, a slight increase from last week’s poll but still the lowest since the general election. The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party remain steady at 11 and 10 percent respectively.

Kemi Badenoch, a prominent figure within the Conservative Party, has publicly criticized the recent Budget, characterizing it as being driven by electoral considerations. While Prime Minister Andy Burnham has repeatedly denied plans for an imminent general election, stating he can rule out one within the next 12 months, Badenoch expressed skepticism, suggesting the government was preparing for an earlier election. Burnham further criticized Badenoch, asserting that she, like many politicians, appears to focus solely on elections rather than governance.