Aging Space telescope set for Earth re-entry after rescue mission fails

The Swift Observatory, weighing in at 3,200 pounds, is expected to fall around 3:30 a.m. EST, with a potential window of error of plus or minus 11 hours, according to predictions from the US Space Force. While most of the telescope is anticipated to disintegrate during atmospheric re-entry, some components—particularly denser tungsten pieces and mirror fragments—may survive. NASA’s chief scientist, Brad Cenko, confirmed this possibility.

Although the majority of debris is expected to land in the ocean, the potential re-entry path extends across most continents excluding Antarctica, encompassing areas within the United States, China, Australia, and Africa. NASA has stated the risk to individuals on Earth is minimal, estimated at approximately 1 in 2,100.

Launched on November 20, 2004, the Swift Observatory was designed to observe gamma ray bursts and supernovas—some of the universe’s most powerful explosions. Despite the impending end, the Swift team expressed gratitude for the valuable data collected over two decades.

“We’ve known this day would come since before Swift was launched. At least in low-Earth orbit, what goes up must come down. And that end is catastrophic,” said John Nousek, an astronomer and leader of the control team at Pennsylvania State University.

Increased solar activity accelerated the telescope’s descent. A year ago, NASA contracted Katalyst Space to attempt a rescue mission using a robotic arm named Link. However, Link encountered issues shortly after launch in July and was unable to get closer than 7 to 9 miles (12 to 15 kilometers) to the Swift Observatory, ultimately re-entering Earth’s atmosphere in September.

Following the failed rescue, Swift continued its observations, cataloging over 2,000 gamma ray bursts and 1,400 exploding stars, alongside numerous comets, asteroids, and black holes. Its rapid swivel capability, reflected in its name, allowed it to quickly target celestial events.

The telescope served as an early warning system for other observatories like Hubble and Webb. Scientists are now working to find alternatives to fill the void left by Swift’s retirement.