European allies fear Trump’s reaction to potential midterm losses

Diplomats suggest that if Trump faces legislative roadblocks at home, he might seek to solidify his legacy through actions in foreign policy, potentially involving a significant reduction of U.S. troops stationed in Europe – potentially thousands – and other disruptive measures. One senior European defense official stated, “Usually what happens to lame duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy,” and noted that criticizing NATO has been a recurring theme in Trump’s worldview.

White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales countered these concerns, asserting that “President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else,” citing agreements to increase defense spending and efforts regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. She emphasized the President’s commitment to advancing U.S. interests both domestically and internationally.

Democrats are widely anticipated to gain control of the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate, coinciding with a decline in Trump’s approval ratings. This situation is compounded by recent events, including the U.S. halting Starlink services for Ukraine and a renewed rapport between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

One potential consequence is a review of U.S. forces in Europe, expected by December. Diplomats suggest Trump might leverage this review to appeal to his base, potentially tying the continued U.S. presence in Europe to a U.S.-backed peace agreement in Ukraine. Former NATO official Oana Lungescu warned of a “very dangerous situation” if these issues are linked in a broader deal with Putin.

Other possible actions include reducing U.S. contributions to NATO’s funding, limiting support for Ukraine, and strengthening ties with Russia. A change in leadership at the Pentagon, potentially due to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s unpopularity in Congress, could also delay any decisions regarding troop movements.

While a Democratic-controlled Congress could theoretically restrain Trump’s actions, some experts believe he has demonstrated a willingness to disregard legal limitations and congressional guidance. Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank, highlighted the difficulty in replacing critical assets like electronic warfare capabilities and intelligence support if a significant drawdown occurs.

Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapović expressed skepticism about Trump’s willingness to abandon NATO, emphasizing that Congress holds the ultimate authority on troop deployments. However, another diplomat cautioned, “I don’t think we are there with the current POTUS.”

NATO and the U.S. Department of Defense have not responded to requests for comment.